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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 011540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM CDT TUE OCT 01 2013 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS EWD WITHIN THE PRIMARY JET CORE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. ISOLATED LIGHTING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS WA WITH LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IN THE ZONE OF ASCENT PRECEDING ONE OF THE TROUGHS...WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7 C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY. OTHERWISE...A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE NW GULF COAST...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION... WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM SE TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A MARGINAL THUNDERSTORM RISK IS ALSO BEING MAINTAINED FOR THE DAKOTAS FROM 09-12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS LOW-LEVEL WAA INCREASES IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK MIDLEVEL MOISTENING/ DESTABILIZATION. ..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 10/01/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |
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