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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 030057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... MULTICELL STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT FROM SRN MN SWWD THROUGH ERN NEB. EVENING RAOB DATA SHOW THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE /1000-1500 J/KG/ MLCAPE...7 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. SFC BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL INCREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. HOWEVER...SOME SWWD BACKBUILDING INTO SCNTRL NEB AND NWRN KS MIGHT OCCUR AS STRENGTHENING LLJ INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY STORMS ON SRN END OF THE LINE. ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP SEWD OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. DUE TO THE MODEST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL. ..DIAL.. 10/03/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |
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