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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 051624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY... ...UPPER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WITH THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN IA INTO NORTHWEST AR. A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. A WEAK CAP WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN EARLY START OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AS INDICATED BY RECENT RADAR/LIGHTNING DATA. OBSERVED VAD DATA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK TODAY...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. NEVERTHELESS...MULTIPLE WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...WITH A FEW STORMS BECOMING SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED FOR A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...LA COAST... TS KAREN IS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF THE LA COAST. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR HAS NOT YET SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHENED TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ALSO...VERY LITTLE CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED IN THIS AREA. NEVERTHELESS THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW RISK OF A BRIEF TORNADO OVER SOUTHEAST LA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT IF WIND FIELDS INTENSIFY. ..HART/COHEN.. 10/05/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |