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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 260528 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 AM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NWRN/WCNTRL TX... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SRN ROCKIES SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ESEWD THEN DIG INTO NWRN TX BY 27/00Z. THIS FEATURE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION ACROSS NM FRIDAY AND LATEST THINKING IS CONVECTION WILL RENEW DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY. WHILE SFC ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED ALONG THE TX COAST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY ADVANCING NWWD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND NEAR 60F SFC DEW POINTS ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. THIS AIR MASS SHOULD RETURN ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE BIG COUNTRY OF WCNTRL TX AHEAD OF WEAK WIND SHIFT. ADDITIONALLY...WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE STRONG SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR FROM SERN NM/FAR WEST TX ALONG I-20 TOWARD THE ABI REGION. THIS PLUME OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BY 18Z AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE LOWER-MID 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT EXHIBIT SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER FLOW AND VEERING WITH HEIGHT TO SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...SOME OF WHICH MAY ROTATE. GREATEST RISK WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE HAIL GREATER THAN ONE INCH...AND IF IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR THAT SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SUPERCELLS THEN SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE RAISED ACROSS THIS REGION. ..DARROW/PETERS.. 10/26/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |
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