Oct 30, 2013 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Oct 30 12:57:46 UTC 2013 (20131030 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20131030 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20131030 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20131030 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20131030 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20131030 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 219,889 20,237,329 San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Ft. Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...
   SPC AC 301253

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0753 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

   VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS LOWER MO VALLEY ACROSS
   CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO SW TX...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MAIN UPPER-AIR FACTOR FOR THIS PERIOD AND BEYOND WILL BE
   HIGH-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC TROUGH -- NOW MANIFEST AS NNE-SSW-ELONGATED
   CYCLONE COVERING MUCH OF GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES
   REGIONS.  THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO EVOLVE INTO MORE
   PROGRESSIVE/OPEN-WAVE BUT STILL HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH THROUGH
   PERIOD.  STG BASAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
   IMAGERY OVER LAS REGION -- IS FCST TO PIVOT EWD ACROSS AZ
   TODAY...REACHING SWRN CO...NWRN NM AND SERN AZ BY 00Z...THEN
   STRENGTHENING AND ACCELERATING EWD TO SRN HIGH PLAINS BY END OF
   PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...COPIOUS MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
   STREAM NEWD OFF WHAT IS NOW NERN PAC T.D. RAYMOND...OVER NRN MEX AND
   MUCH OF TX/OK/AR/LA.

   AT SFC...STG/INITIALLY QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDED FROM
   LOW OVER NERN KS/NWRN MO REGION SWWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL KS AND NWRN OK
   TO NRN TX PANHANDLE...TO ANOTHER LOW OVER SERN CO.  PAC COLD FRONT
   WAS EVIDENT FROM THAT LOW SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN NM.  LATTER FRONT
   WILL MOVE EWD ONLY SLOWLY AT FIRST...THEN BECOME BETTER-DEFINED WITH
   TIME THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...OVERTAKING DRYLINE FROM N-S ACROSS
   SRN HIGH PLAINS.  BY 12Z...FRONTAL-WAVE LOW SHOULD EVOLVE OVER NRN
   OK...WITH COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS W TX.

   ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...LOWER MO VALLEY...
   SE-NW ALIGNED BELT OF SCATTERED TSTMS...WITH ISOLATED SVR HAIL CORES
   POTENTIALLY EMBEDDED WITHIN...IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN NEB AND
   LOWER MO VALLEY REGION. THIS ACTIVITY IS FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
   ELEVATED CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS IT MOVES
   NEWD OUT OF PORTIONS CENTRAL KS...ALSO N OF SFC FRONT.  REF SPC
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1980 FOR NEAR-TERM DETAILS.

   OTHERWISE...THREE RELATIVE CONCENTRATIONS OF POTENTIAL NOW ARE
   APPARENT WITHIN WHAT OTHERWISE APPEARS AS POORLY
   FOCUSED...CONVECTIVELY MESSY AND VERY BROAD SVR RISK AREA.

   1. CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL/SE TX INTO OK THROUGH AFTN...
   THIS REGIME WILL REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD LLJ AND RELATED
   WAA/MOISTURE-TRANSPORT PROCESS...CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK INSTABILITY
   BUT FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING DEEP
   SHEAR.  EPISODES OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED NON-SVR TSTMS IN
   CLUSTERS ALREADY HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVER THIS
   AREA...INCREASING OVERALL IN COVERAGE.  MORE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
   THROUGHOUT TODAY ON ITS WRN FRINGES AS
   A. LLJ REPLENISHES LOW-LEVEL THETAE AWAY FROM PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
   OVERTURNING AND
   B. DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...DIFFUSE DIABATIC HEATING YIELDS
   STEADILY INCREASING SFC-BASED BUOYANCY THROUGH LATE AFTN.

   2. EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE CORRIDOR FROM SW TX TO SRN OK...
   DEEP-LAYER LIFT AND SHEAR EACH WILL INCREASE...IN ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SFC DEW POINTS
   COMMONLY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F.  THIS PROCESS SHOULD HELP TO
   MAINTAIN SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS WITH WEAK CINH...BENEATH
   STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...IN SUPPORT OF MOSTLY CLUSTERED TO
   QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTION.  THOUGH UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE
   MITIGATED SOMEWHAT IN PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM RAYMOND...MLCAPE/MUCAPE
   IN 1500-2000 J/KG MAY BE ATTAINABLE AWAY FROM PERSISTENT/ANTECEDENT
   CONVECTIVE AREAS.  LLJ WILL KEEP 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES AND HODOGRAPH
   LARGE...THOUGH WEAKNESSES ABOVE THAT MAY LIMIT TOTAL LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR.  STILL...CONDITIONAL TORNADO RISK IS EVIDENT ON TOP OF
   WIND/HAIL THREAT...DEPENDENT LARGELY ON MAINTENANCE OF ANY EMBEDDED
   OR DISCRETE SUPERCELL MODES THAT CAN DEVELOP.

   3. PORTIONS SRN KS...WRN OK AND W TX TONIGHT...
   AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH APCHS SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...HEIGHT/THERMAL GRADIENTS ALOFT WILL TIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY
   AND ADVANCE EWD AMIDST PRONOUNCED DCVA AND STG HEIGHT FALLS. 
   RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF AOA 140-KT 250-MB JET STREAK WILL BE
   PRESENT OVER THIS REGION...ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
   FORCING.  THESE PROCESSES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING DEEP SHEAR...
   LAPSE RATES AND LIFT OVER WRN FRINGES OF WARM/MOIST SECTOR AFTER
   DARK.  BAND OF SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS MAY
   FORM...OFFERING SVR HAIL...OCNL DAMAGING GUSTS AND LOW BUT NONZERO
   TORNADO RISK.

   WHILE THOSE REGIMES REPRESENT MOST PROBABLE SOURCES OF ORGANIZED SVR
   CONVECTION...PLEASE BEAR IN MIND THAT STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT WILL
   SPREAD OVER SEASONALLY MOIST AND AT LEAST MRGLLY UNSTABLE WARM/MOIST
   SECTOR ALL PERIOD LONG.  AS SUCH...AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR OF ANY TYPE
   CAN OCCUR IN BETWEEN...ANYWHERE OVER OUTLOOK AREA...THROUGHOUT TODAY
   AND TONIGHT.

   ..EDWARDS/COHEN.. 10/30/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z