Oct 31, 2013 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Oct 31 16:34:38 UTC 2013 (20131031 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20131031 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20131031 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20131031 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20131031 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20131031 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 342,565 47,622,817 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Detroit, MI...Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...
   SPC AC 311630

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

   VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MS VLY THROUGH THE
   OZARKS INTO THE OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   POTENT SRN PLNS UPR TROUGH/VORT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENE INTO SE MO
   THIS EVE...BEFORE ACCELERATING NEWD TO THE LWR GRT LKS EARLY FRI. IN
   SO DOING...ASSOCIATED 100+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK WILL SWEEP ENE
   ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS AFTN...AND THE LWR OH VLY EARLY TNGT...BEFORE
   REACHING WRN PA/NY EARLY FRI. ATTENDANT SFC LOW SHOULD CONSOLIDATE
   OVER IL LATER TODAY...AND APPRECIABLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NNE TO
   GEORGIAN BAY EARLY FRI. COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS
   TRAILING  SSW FROM THE LOW WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN CORRIDORS OF
   LOW-LVL ASCENT/POTENTIAL SVR TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

   ...LWR MS VLY...
   PRE-FRONTAL SQLN OVER MS/LA AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE GENERALLY EWD TODAY AT ABOUT 30 KTS. WHILE THE
   ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT SSW LLJ AHEAD OF THE SQLN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
   NE INTO THE TN/OH VLYS THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUED ENE
   MOVEMENT OF KS/OK VORT...THIS WILL BE A GRADUAL PROCESS.
   THUS...GIVEN RICH MOISTURE /PW AOA 2 IN/ AND LONG...CURVED
   HODOGRAPHS IN WARM SECTOR E OF LINE...POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR
   EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES/LOW-LVL MESOCYCLONES WITH A RISK FOR
   TORNADOES/DMGG WIND. DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE MODEST GIVEN EXPECTED
   PERSISTENCE OF MID/HIGH-LVL CLOUDS...AND WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
   WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY. BUT LOW-LVL BUOYANCY
   SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST THE MAINTENANCE...AND PERHAPS
   LOCALIZED STRENGTHENING...OF EXISTING UPDRAFTS THROUGH LATE TODAY.

   ...OZARKS/MID-MS VLY TO LWR GRT LKS...
   A SEPARATE SVR THREAT AREA MAY ARISE BY EARLY TO MID-AFTN OVER THE
   MO/NRN AR OZARKS...WHERE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MID-LVL
   COOLING WILL PRECEDE POTENT SRN PLNS VORT. CLOUDS AND LOW-LVL
   TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM LWR MS VLY SQLN WILL TEMPER DIURNAL AND
   DYNAMIC DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION. BUT POCKETS/CORRIDORS  OF
   AT LEAST MODEST SFC HEATING SHOULD ACCOMPANY ASSOCIATED MID-LVL DRY
   SLOT /ESPECIALLY IN SRN MO/...AND PROVE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
   LOW-TOPPED STORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN CONVERGENT LOW-LVL FLOW. STRENGTH
   AND CHARACTER OF WIND FIELD SUGGEST GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR BANDS OF
   STRONG MULTICELLS AND/OR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DMGG
   WIND...MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES IF
   SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS DO INDEED FORM. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP
   ENE INTO PARTS OF IL/WRN KY AND IND BY EVE...WITH A CONTINUING
   THREAT FOR HIGH WIND/ISOLD TORNADOES.

   WITH THE ENTIRE MID/UPR-LVL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO UNDERGO SUBSTANTIAL
   AMPLIFICATION LATE TNGT/EARLY FRI...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME REMNANT
   OF THE LWR OH VLY STORMS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE/SUFFICIENTLY REJUVENATE
   TO EXTEND A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED DMGG SFC
   WINDS AS FAR NE AS WRN NY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...DESPITE FEEBLE
   LOW-LVL BUOYANCY.

   ..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 10/31/2013

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