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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 021217 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0717 AM CDT SAT NOV 02 2013 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY THROUGH THE ERN CONUS TODAY...WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. OVER THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AS AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WA/OR. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH VERY ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE VERY LOW ACROSS THE CONUS. ...CENTRAL/SRN FL... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED /MAINLY PRIOR TO 00Z/ ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA. WHILE THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST...VERY WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE STORMS. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST... POST-FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS WRN WA/ORE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS COLD TEMPS ALOFT /-25C TO -30C AT 500 MB/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION. ...OHIO VALLEY... COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..DEAN/MEAD.. 11/02/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |
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