Nov 10, 2013 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |||||||||
Updated: Sun Nov 10 00:46:46 UTC 2013 ( | ) | |||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 100042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CST SAT NOV 09 2013 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN FL COASTAL AREA... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BANDS OFF THE SERN FL COAST AND ARE MOVING WWD. THE 00Z RAOB FROM MIAMI SHOWS ELY WINDS IN THE SFC-700 MB LAYER SUPPORTING THE WWD MOTION FOR SHALLOW UPDRAFTS. THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE LAYER EXTENDS THROUGH 300 MB...LAPSE RATES ARE VERY MARGINAL WITH MLCAPE AROUND 400 J/KG...PROMOTING ONLY WEAK UPDRAFTS. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE CONVECTIVE LAYER...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING...BUT THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE MORE GENERAL AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE. ..DIAL.. 11/10/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |