Nov 10, 2013 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 10 00:46:46 UTC 2013 (20131110 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20131110 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20131110 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20131110 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20131110 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20131110 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 100042

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0642 PM CST SAT NOV 09 2013

   VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SRN FL COASTAL AREA...

   SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   BANDS OFF THE SERN FL COAST AND ARE MOVING WWD. THE 00Z RAOB FROM
   MIAMI SHOWS ELY WINDS IN THE SFC-700 MB LAYER SUPPORTING THE WWD
   MOTION FOR SHALLOW UPDRAFTS. THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE LAYER EXTENDS
   THROUGH 300 MB...LAPSE RATES ARE VERY MARGINAL WITH MLCAPE AROUND
   400 J/KG...PROMOTING ONLY WEAK UPDRAFTS. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE
   CONVECTIVE LAYER...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR
   THE COAST THIS EVENING...BUT THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
   SUGGESTS ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE MORE GENERAL AREA OF SHOWERS
   SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE.

   ..DIAL.. 11/10/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z