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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 170110 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0710 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY... CORRECTED SOUNDING INFORMATION FIRST PARAGRAPH ...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY... AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AS A 80 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET TRANSLATES EWD THROUGH THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL GREAT PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A BROAD 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE OZARKS NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS ERN KS AND NW MO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE AND MOVE EWD TOWARD THE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG EXTENDING FROM SE KS INTO SE IA. THE NAM MODEL STEADILY INCREASES INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MO TONIGHT SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE AND SHOULD SPREAD NEWD WITH TIME. THE 00Z SOUNDING AT SPRINGFIELD MO STILL SHOWS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION SUGGESTING THE ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH IS ELEVATED. THIS FACTOR COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE AROUND 7.5 C/KM MAY MAKE THE INITIAL THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE INVERSION OVER NCNTRL MO SUGGESTING THE ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE SFC-BASED LATE THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. THIS MAY HELP A WIND DAMAGE THREAT TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE MID 50S F ACROSS WRN IL AND SERN IA...RAPID MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A TORNADO THREAT WITH THE MORE DOMINANT CELLS LATE TONIGHT. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST...THE CAP IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ALONG THE MS RIVER LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW NEW CONVECTION TO INITIATE WITH STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RAPID LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS SRN IL AND SERN MO SHOULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT IN THE MID MS VALLEY. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN SE MO AT 09Z TO 12Z SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F...MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1200 J/KG WITH 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. DUE TO THE LARGE LOOPED HODOGRAPHS AND POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT...A THREAT FOR TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. FOR THIS REASON...WILL EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SWD ACROSS SE MO AND SCNTRL IL INTO FAR NE AR AND WRN KY. WILL ALSO ADD A SMALL 5 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER IN SRN IL...SE MO AND WRN KY. ..BROYLES.. 11/17/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |