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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 220529 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 PM CST THU NOV 21 2013 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THERMALLY DIRECT CIRCULATION LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF INTENSIFYING MIDWESTERN UPPER JET WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT SWD ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SHALLOW FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL AID IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MARGINAL CAPE/SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SEVERE STORMS. ELSEWHERE...COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA WILL FAVOR A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS. WEAK BUOYANCY WILL BE GENERATED AS A RESULT...WHICH WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS LOBES OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREAD NWD OVER THE REGION. ..GARNER.. 11/22/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |
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