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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 241253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST SUN NOV 24 2013 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE PERSISTENT CLOSED LOW OVER AZ THIS MORNING WILL MOVE GENERALLY EWD TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM/WRN TX PANHANDLE BY EARLY MONDAY. BELTS OF ASCENT PRECEDING THIS SYSTEM...ABOVE A SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS ACROSS TX...WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN TWO PERIODS ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY -- ONE THIS MORNING WITH THE WAA REGIME IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WHERE MARGINAL BUOYANCY IS ROOTED NEAR 700 MB PER 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM MAF-DRT-BRO...AND LATER TONIGHT IN THE ZONE OF INCREASING DCVA AND HEIGHT FALLS AS THE MIDLEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W. OTHERWISE...SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE SE FL COAST AND THE FL KEYS AS A SLOWLY WEAKENING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD INTO S FL. HOWEVER...THE RISK FOR LIGHTNING SHOULD STAY PRIMARILY OFFSHORE WITH THE RICHER MOISTURE. ..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 11/24/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |
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