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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 270532 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 PM CST TUE NOV 26 2013 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WITHIN AN AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN...DUAL UPPER TROUGHS...WITH ONE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE OTHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL INCREASINGLY PHASE TODAY OVER THE APPALACHIANS/EASTERN SEABOARD. A SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY DEEPEN/SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND FL PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE...THE PREVALENCE OF DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A NIL TSTM POTENTIAL AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ...NC COAST/OUTER BANKS... TEMPORALLY/SPATIALLY-LIMITED SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NC COAST/OUTER BANKS FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE THE BULK OF THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD END AND SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING /PRIOR TO 12Z/...A LINGERING DAMAGING WIND/PERHAPS TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT FOR NC COASTAL AREAS/OUTER BANKS BEYOND SUNRISE. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY MOISTURE-RICH NEAR-COASTAL MARITIME AIRMASS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN ADVANCE OF THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD SHIFTING UPPER TROUGH. ANY SUCH SEVERE RISK WILL QUICKLY END THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SPEEDILY SPREADS EASTWARD/OFFSHORE. ...SOUTH FL... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS /POTENTIALLY INCLUDING A COUPLE STRONG STORMS/ WILL LINGER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. FACTORS SUCH AS THE EARLY DAY PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...ONSET OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS...AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT SUGGEST THAT THE RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS IS NEGLIGIBLE. ..GUYER/GARNER.. 11/27/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |
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