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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 060050
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 PM CST THU DEC 05 2013
VALID 060100Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA...
...SYNOPSIS/ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...
THE SHALLOW LEADING EDGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT ONGOING COLD INTRUSION
TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES HAS ADVANCED EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION...SOUTHWARD ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT INTO NORTHERN/MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS MAY BE QUICKER
THAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT PROBABLY WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ALABAMA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
WHILE THIS OCCURS...500 MB HEIGHT TENDENCIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GENERALLY NEUTRAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE MOIST
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER PROBABLY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CAPPED.
INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION NEAR A 35-40
KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET AXIS HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH OF MONTGOMERY AL INTO
THE ATLANTA GA AREA. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD MAY BE WITH THIS ACTIVITY BETWEEN NOW AND
02-04Z...AND COULD INCLUDE THE RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO...BEFORE THE SPEED MAXIMUM SHIFTS NORTHWARD WITHIN
A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
OTHERWISE...ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUICKLY UNDERCUT BY IT...WITH VERY LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR WELL
TO THE WEST AND NORTH...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DESTABILIZATION WITHIN
BANDS OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE DEEPENING
COLD/STABLE SURFACE BASED AIR MASS...FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS.
..KERR.. 12/06/2013
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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