| 
)| Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|||||||||
| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
 |
|||||||||
| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
 |
|||||||||
| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
 |
|||||||||
| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| |||||||||
SPC AC 092158 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0358 PM CST MON DEC 09 2013 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AMENDED FOR LOWER MS VALLEY THUNDERSTORM AREA ...SERN STATES... A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING MAINLY WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE FL PANHANDLE THROUGH GA. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... HAVE INCLUDED A SEPARATE THUNDERSTORM AREA FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME FROM LA THROUGH SERN AR AND MS. ..DIAL.. 12/09/2013 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST MON DEC 09 2013/ ...SYNOPSIS... A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE MS VALLEY AS AN UPSTREAM SPEED MAX DIGS SSEWD FROM ALBERTA TO THE NRN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A STALLED SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NE GULF AND SE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN THE LEE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NW GULF COAST...WHERE A SURGE OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EWD OVERNIGHT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WITH ASCENT SUPPORTED BY LOW-MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE INTENSE UPPER JET OVER THE OH AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z |
|||||||||