| 
)| Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|||||||||
| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
 |
|||||||||
| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
 |
|||||||||
| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
 |
|||||||||
| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| |||||||||
SPC AC 151235 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2013 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW IS FCST TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH PERIOD BETWEEN ROCKIES AND ATLC COAST...WITH RIDGING OVER CA AND NWRN MEX. NRN PORTION OF EMBEDDED/POSITIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM MID-ATLC REGION SWWD ACROSS MS...S TX AND NRN MEX -- IS FCST TO ACCELERATE NEWD AND WEAKEN THROUGH 00Z...WHILE MOVING OFFSHORE ATLC COAST. MEANWHILE...CYCLONE OVER NWRN ONT WILL PIVOT ACROSS NERN ONT AND SRN QUE...REACHING NRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z. AT THAT TIME...SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED FROM SERN CANADA SWWD OVER APPALACHIANS TO NRN GULF. AT SFC...11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED CYCLONE INVOF SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS ATLC WATERS TO N-CENTRAL FL. FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS PENINSULA THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR WITH POSTFRONTAL PRECIP PLUME OVER SERN CONUS...OR ELEVATED WARM CONVEYOR IN MAINE...ONLY GEN TSTM THREAT APPEARS TO BE OVER PARTS OF FL. ...CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA... 11Z MESOANALYSIS REVEALED PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE LINE ACCOMPANIED BY BKN BAND OF TSTMS JUST S OF DAB-PIE LINE...MOVING SWD BUT MORE SLOWLY THAN COLD FRONT. ANOTHER PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE...ALSO SUPPORTING BKN TSTMS BUT IN CLUSTERS...WAS EVIDENT FROM OFFSHORE SANIBEL ISLAND TO ABOUT 140 W EYW TO NEAR NWRN COASTAL WATERS OF YUCATAN PENINSULA. COLD FRONT SHOULD CATCH FIRST PREFRONTAL BAND THROUGH LATE MORNING...WHILE ACTIVITY OVER GULF MOVES INTO SWRN FL PENINSULA. VEERING OF PREFRONTAL SFC FLOW WITH TIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING OF FRONTAL AND PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AS WELL AS DIMINISHING VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...LIFT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT IN COMBINATION WITH DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND SFC DEW POINTS NEAR 70 F TO ERODE ALREADY MEAGER MLCINH AND SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM POTENTIAL INTO EARLY-MID AFTN. THEREAFTER...CONTINUED WEAKENING OF LIFT SHOULD REDUCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN WHAT IS LEFT OF WARM SECTOR. ..EDWARDS/MARSH.. 12/15/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |
|||||||||