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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 290035 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2013 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FL/GA... AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER TX/OK EARLY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION TOWARD THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. AN INTENSIFYING POLAR JET/STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD WILL PRECEDE THIS TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A SURFACE LOW /1012 MB ROUGHLY 50 MILES SSE OF PENSACOLA FL AS OF 00Z/ CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND MOVE INLAND/NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. FACTORS SUCH AS WEAK LAPSE RATES...SLOW ABATEMENT OF CONTINENTAL POLAR TRAJECTORIES...AND THE LIMITED INLAND ADVANCEMENT OF RICHER MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL BE OVERALL LIMITING FACTORS FOR TONIGHT/S CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THAT SAID...A CONDITIONAL/LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST. THE 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM TALLAHASSEE FEATURED A 0.5 KM AGL STABLE LAYER...ALTHOUGH AROUND 70 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE NOTED WITHIN AROUND 65-75 MILES OF THE FL BIG BEND AS OF 00Z. AS A MARITIME AIR MASS GRADUALLY MOVES INLAND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE/NORTH FL AND PERHAPS IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT SOUTH GA...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY GIVEN A STRONG WIND PROFILE/AMPLE SRH. ..GUYER.. 12/29/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |
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