Jan 28, 2013 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 28 06:44:45 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130128 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20130128 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 280642
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1242 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER OH/MID MS VALLEY
   REGION SWWD INTO NERN TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE U.S.
   THIS PERIOD...WITH A STRONG TROUGH FORECAST TO EXIT THE ROCKIES AND
   SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH TIME.
   
   AS THE STRONG/SHARP TROUGH ADVANCES...A SHARPENING COLD FRONT IS
   FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
   PERIOD...AND THEN CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT.  BY THE END OF THE
   PERIOD...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD STRETCH FROM LOWER MI SWD TO THE
   CENTRAL GULF COAST AND ON INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  IT IS THIS FRONT
   WHICH WILL FOCUS A ZONE OF STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. -- PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING HOURS.
   
   ...LOWER OH/MID MS VALLEYS SWWD INTO NERN TX...
   SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE
   START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND ADJACENT N TX/SRN
   KS...AHEAD OF THE SHARPENING SURFACE FRONT.  CONVECTION SHOULD
   REMAIN GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE HOWEVER INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS
   MOISTENING/WEAK DESTABILIZATION OF THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS OCCURS.
   
   BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE SHOULD COMBINE
   WITH INCREASING ASCENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM TO
   RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG/AHEAD
   OF THE COLD FRONT.  WHILE STORMS FROM ROUGHLY THE MS VALLEY NEWD
   INTO IL SHOULD STRUGGLE TO BECOME TRULY SURFACE-BASED THUS LIMITING
   SEVERE POTENTIAL...STORMS FROM MO SWD WILL BE OCCURRING IN A
   SUFFICIENTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO PERMIT DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO
   POTENTIAL.  WITH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TO REMAIN WELL TO THE
   N...MINIMAL LOW-LEVEL VEERING MAY LIMIT OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL. 
   HOWEVER...STRONG SPEED SHEAR GIVEN A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING FLOW
   FIELD WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   DAMAGING GUSTS AND LIKELY A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   
   THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
   HOURS...WITH LINEAR EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH TIME. 
   DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY EVENTUALLY SPREAD E OF THE MS RIVER
   VALLEY...THOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING
   WITHIN A REGION EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION NEWD ACROSS THE
   OZARKS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 01/28/2013
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z