Jan 29, 2013 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 29 17:32:46 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130129 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20130129 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 291730
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
   
   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SERN STATES...OH
   VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   AXIS OF HIGH AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER
   MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY. A VORT MAX EMBEDDED
   WITHIN THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO
   THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE SECONDARY VORT MAX WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH
   THE TN AND OH VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A 120+ KT
   500 MB JET ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ENEWD THROUGH
   SERN STATES...OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. PRIMARY SFC
   LOW WILL INITIALLY BE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN THE EXIT
   REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NEWD INTO SERN
   CANADA...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE SERN
   STATES...REACHING THE NERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY
   NIGHT.  
    
   ...SERN U.S. THROUGH OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...
   
   PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL HAVE ALREADY ADVECTED THROUGH THE
   WARM SECTOR ALONG A VERY STRONG AND EXPANSIVE 65-75 KT SLY LLJ.
   DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 60S OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE
   GULF COASTAL STATES TO UPPER 50S OR AROUND 60 FROM THE OH VALLEY
   INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES.
   MLCAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM AOB 800 J/KG OVER THE SERN STATES TO AOB
   500 J/KG FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. 
   
   EXPANSIVE LINE OF STORMS WILL BE IN PROGRESS WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG
   AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD THROUGH THE TN
   AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGIONS POSING AN ONGOING SEVERE THREAT.
   ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SERN STATES AND OH
   VALLEY DURING THE DAY AND CAROLINAS TO MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
   EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STORMS WILL BE  EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY STRONG
   DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT
   ALONG WITH LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
   EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES...MESO-VORTICES AND SUPERCELLS. POTENTIAL
   FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION AND WEAK CAP
   SUGGEST A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MIGHT DEVELOP ALONG CONVEYOR BELT
   AHEAD OF THE LINE...ESPECIALLY OVER A PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES
   WHERE HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE.
   PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES...WITH THE
   GREATER TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED OVER THE SERN STATES. THE MARGINAL
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT PRECLUDES AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK AT
   THIS TIME...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED.
   
   ..DIAL.. 01/29/2013
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z