Mar 31, 2013 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 31 06:04:48 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130331 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20130331 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 310602
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0102 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD INTO NEW
   ENGLAND WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT ROTATING AROUND AN ERN CANADA UPPER
   LOW. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SWD AND WILL EXTEND
   ROUGHLY FROM NWRN TX EWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES DURING THE
   DAY. S OF THIS FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
   60S F WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
   APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE FOUR
   CORNERS STATES OVERNIGHT AND WILL HELP INDUCE SLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS
   TX WHICH WILL ENHANCE NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH SOME
   SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
   
   ...NWRN TX...
   SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY WITH STRONG HEATING S OF
   THE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE SWWD ACROSS THE TX
   PANHANDLE AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SERN NM/W TX. BACKED
   SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...WHICH WILL
   RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND MODERATE
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR. 
   
   THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR STORMS...WITH HAIL AND WIND
   DEVELOPING. NAM SUGGESTS A LOCALIZED ZONE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG
   WRN PORTION OF FRONT AND NEAR MOIST AXIS. CELLS WITH HAIL MAY
   EVENTUALLY MERGE AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS A SELY LOW LEVEL
   JET DEVELOPS. A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY THUS OCCUR. WITH SUCH LOW
   DEWPOINTS...MAXIMUM HAIL SIZE IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.00 AND
   1.75 INCHES.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 03/31/2013
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z