SPC AC 260600
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2013
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF ERN TX INTO
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND
   EMBEDDED WITHIN A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL MOVE TO THE
   MID-LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
   SLOWLY EWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SERN STATES. SATURDAY MORNING A
   COLD FRONT SHOULD STRETCH FROM WEAK SFC LOW OVER ARK SWWD THROUGH
   NRN AND SWRN TX. WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND SEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY AREA AND LIFT NEWD DURING THE DAY...WHILE THE
   COLD FRONT CONTINUES SWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL TX
   WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STALL OVERNIGHT. 
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
   
   ELEVATED STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF ARK EWD INTO
   THE TN VALLEY. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR
   WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WILL HAVE ADVECTED THROUGH
   THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
   TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE/ AS DIABATIC
   WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES. ERN EXTENSION OF THE EML
   WILL LIKELY HAVE ADVECTED THROUGH WARM SECTOR RESULTING IN AT LEAST
   A MODEST CAP. HOWEVER...THE CAP WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER DESTABILIZES AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF SEWD
   ADVANCING COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LLJ IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
   INTO THE TN VALLEY EARLY IN PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEAD VORT MAX
   EJECTING THROUGH ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH LEAVING WEAK AND
   VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS IN WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...BELT OF STRONGER
   UPPER FLOW WITHIN BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 40-50 KT
   LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6 KM SHEAR. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME
   UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE WITH STORM SPLITS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG WITH AN
   ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  
   
   ...SWRN THROUGH CNTRL TX...
   
   EML WILL HAVE ADVECTED THROUGH THE MOISTENING WARM SECTOR RESULTING
   IN MODERATE INSTABILITY...BUT ALSO A CAP. COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD
   TOWARD CNTRL TX DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EWD.
   HOWEVER...FLOW IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER IS FORECAST TO BE VERY WEAK AND
   THERE IS CONCERN THAT STORM COVERAGE COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
   OTHER ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD ALSO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
   MEXICO WITHIN DEEP BUT WEAK ELY UPSLOPE REGIME AND SPREAD INTO A
   PORTIONS OF SWRN TX. THE TX WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
   STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WITH SHEAR PROFILES LARGELY SUPPORTIVE OF
   MULTICELLS AND MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
   WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
   WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE COVERAGE THIS OUTLOOK...BUT A PORTION OF
   CNTRL AND SCNTRL TX MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK ONCE
   STORM COVERAGE CONCERNS HAVE BEEN MITIGATED.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/26/2013
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z