May 1, 2013 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed May 1 17:27:49 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130501 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20130501 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 011725
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1225 PM CDT WED MAY 01 2013
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S. THIS
   PERIOD...AS A STOUT/PERSISTENT RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
   THE COUNTRY.  THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPEDE A MORE PROGRESSIVE
   ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL STATES...WITH A CLOSED
   LOW SLOWING AS IT DEEPENS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN THE
   PERIOD.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT CROSSING TX AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
   IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SURGING SSEWD...MOVING OFF THE TX COAST INTO
   THE GULF BY AFTERNOON.  FARTHER N...MUCH SLOWER FRONTAL ADVANCE IS
   FORECAST...WITH THE BOUNDARY LIKELY LINGERING OVER THE LOWER OH/MID
   MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN
   CONUS...WARM SECTOR SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. 
   THUS -- WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH ALONG THE FRONT
   AND ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY
   REMAIN MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/01/2013
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z