SPC AC 060538
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1238 AM CDT MON MAY 06 2013
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE IN MID-UPPER LEVELS THROUGH
   PERIOD.  PAIR OF CUT-OFF LOWS NOW BRACKETING CONUS IS FCST TO BECOME
   MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER THROUGH DAY-2.  ERN CYCLONIC GYRE NOW
   COVERS MUCH OF SERN CONUS...CENTERED OVER NERN AL/NWRN GA
   REGION...AND IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS CAROLINAS DAY-2
   WHILE GRADUALLY FILLING.  MEANWHILE...CYCLONE NOW EVIDENT IN
   MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE NRN CA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
   CENTRAL/SRN CA AND SRN GREAT BASIN TO JUST W OF 4-CORNERS
   REGION...ALSO WITH SUBTLE WEAKENING.  RIDGING IN BETWEEN IS BEING
   INTERRUPTED BY MUCH SMALLER/WEAKER BUT ALSO CUT-OFF VORTEX -- NOW
   APPARENT OVER SD AND FCST TO MEANDER ERRATICALLY NEAR ITS PRESENT
   POSITION UNTIL EARLY-MIDDLE OF DAY-2 PERIOD.  THEN...BROADER-SCALE
   HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF NRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE AMPLIFICATION OVER
   CENTRAL CANADA SHOULD OCCUR...LEADING TO SLOW EWD MOVEMENT OF THIS
   FEATURE TOWARD MN AS OPEN-WAVE TROUGH.  SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   CURRENTLY PIVOTING NEWD ACROSS AZ/SONORA SHOULD MOVE NEWD FROM CO
   ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN PERIOD...ULTIMATELY PHASING WITH
   AFOREMENTIONED SD PERTURBATION.
   
   AT SFC...LEE TROUGHING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH PERIOD...WITH
   WEAK/EMBEDDED SFC LOW POSSIBLE OVER SERN CO/SWRN KS REGION BY 8/00Z.
    DRYLINE WILL REMAIN ILL-DEFINED BECAUSE OF LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL
   MOISTURE TO ITS E...BUT SHOULD SET UP ALONG OR JUST E OF LEE TROUGH
   AND CONFLUENCE LINE FROM NWRN KS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PORTIONS TX
   PANHANDLE.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...HIGH BASED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP
   DIURNALLY AND INTO EVENING INVOF LEE TROUGH AND/OR DRYLINE...WITH
   HAIL AND LOCALLY STG-SVR GUSTS POSSIBLE.  DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES
   WILL BE FAVORABLE...ESPECIALLY FROM KS/NEB BORDER REGION SWD WHERE
   30-35 KT 500-MB FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   MAGNITUDE.  SFC SELYS BENEATH LLJ ALSO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENLARGED
   HODOGRAPHS...WITH EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 300 J/KG INDICATED AROUND
   8/00Z.
   
   MAIN FACTORS PRECLUDING CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ARE LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL
   SUPPORT...WITH LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AWAY FROM AREA DURING
   PEAK AFTN SFC TEMPS...AND LACK OF MORE ROBUST MOISTURE. 
   MARITIME/TROPICAL TRAJECTORIES WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE TO THIS
   REGIME...GIVEN CURRENT SETUP OF SEASONALLY LOW-THETAE/OFFSHORE FLOW
   OVER NRN GULF BEHIND SERN CONUS CYCLONE.  AS SUCH...MOISTURE AND
   BUOYANCY WILL BE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORS FOR ORGANIZATION/DURATION
   OF SVR THREAT THIS PERIOD.  OPERATIONAL PROGS INCLUDING NAM/SPECTRAL
   EACH APPEAR TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTANT
   SFC DEW POINTS...AS HAS BEEN COMMON SO FAR THIS SPRING DURING
   EARLY-STAGE RETURN-FLOW EVENTS.  MOST REALISTIC SCENARIO MAY BE
   PROGGED BY MORE CONSERVATIVE HALF OF NMM-B MEMBERS OF SREF...WITH
   SPOTTY 50S F SFC DEW POINTS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL/WRN KS. 
   ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS YIELD 500-1000 J/KG
   MLCAPE...WHICH STILL SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED/CONDITIONAL
   SVR POTENTIAL GIVEN FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/06/2013
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z