May 13, 2013 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon May 13 17:25:49 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130513 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20130513 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 131723
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1223 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD ALONG THE NERN ATLANTIC COAST...WITH
   GENERALLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE SRN
   TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. A BELT OF STRONG WLYS ALOFT WILL BE
   CONFINED TO THE NRN TIER...WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
   UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AN
   ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS E-SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY AND NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. FARTHER S...AN INITIALLY CLOSED UPPER
   LOW OVER NRN MEX WILL WEAKEN AND PROGRESS NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS
   AND PHASE WITH THE SRN PERIPHERY OF WLY FLOW ALOFT. 
   
   ...UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY...
   AN EML PLUME EMANATING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES WILL SPREAD EWD IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH SKIRTING THE U.S./CANADIAN
   BORDER. MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION NWD WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE
   WARM-SECTOR PRECEDING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH IS FORECAST
   TO EXTEND FROM ERN MN SWWD INTO NWRN IA AND NERN NEB BY LATE
   AFTERNOON. AS HAS BEEN FREQUENTLY BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE FIELDS IN SUITE OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE APPEAR TO BE
   SUBSTANTIALLY OVERDONE. MORE REALISTICALLY...SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
   50S F AT BEST APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN A LACK OF A SUBSTANTIAL UPSTREAM
   MOISTURE SOURCE ON LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG
   HEATING FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 90S
   F...COMBINED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
   BECOME UNSTABLE WITH ESTIMATED MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
   DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
   
   ALTHOUGH THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SVR POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY...THE RISK APPEARS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST
   FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE WELL N OF THE MOST
   UNSTABLE AIR. HOWEVER...IF ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS CAN
   DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...AN ACCOMPANYING
   THREAT FOR HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS COULD EXIST. A RISK FOR HAIL MAY
   ALSO ACCOMPANY ELEVATED CONVECTION N OF A WARM FRONT...DRAPED ACROSS
   FAR NERN MN...NRN WI...AND SEWD INTO CNTRL MI...AND COULD EXTEND
   INTO EARLY WED AS LOW-LEVEL WAA STRENGTHENS.
   
   ..ROGERS/BUNTING.. 05/13/2013
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z