May 19, 2013 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook | |||||||||||||
Updated: Sun May 19 06:05:32 UTC 2013 | |||||||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||||||
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Probabilistic Graphic | |||||||||||||
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 190600 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SERN KS/W CENTRAL AND SWRN MO SWWD INTO CENTRAL OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SSWWD INTO N CENTRAL TX... ...SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LINGER IN PLACE ACROSS THE SD/NEB VICINITY...WHILE A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK AROUND THE SRN FRINGE OF THE LOW EJECTS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE PERIOD. WHILE A SECOND LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE PAC NW COAST LATE...THE CENTRAL U.S. STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE SD VICINITY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK SHIFTS INTO THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SWRN OK VICINITY...NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE FRONT AND A DEVELOPING DRYLINE. THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE SHOULD SERVE AS PRIMARY FOCI FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD/SEVERE STORMS. ...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS... WHILE DETAILS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD/INTERVENING CONVECTION...ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST MONDAY/DAY 2 ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WEAKENING/DIMINISHING CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...BUT AS STORMS/CLOUDINESS WANE THROUGH THE MORNING IN MOST AREAS...EXPECT THE ONSET OF HEATING TO DRIVE STRONG AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE PRE-FRONTAL/PRE-DRYLINE WARM SECTOR SHOULD FEATURE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT -- AIDED BY THE APPROACHING JET STREAK AND FOCUSED ALONG LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES -- INCREASES...EXPECT DEVELOPMENT/RAPID GROWTH OF INITIAL CONVECTION DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. AS SHEAR INCREASES IN CONJUNCTION WITH INTENSIFYING FLOW ALOFT...STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY ACQUIRE ROTATION -- PARTICULARLY WHERE CAPE/SHEAR JUXTAPOSITION APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA. HERE...THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL EXIST. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE EVENING...AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO LINEAR CLUSTERS IN SOME AREAS. EVEN SO...ROTATING/SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD LINGER LOCALLY WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS -- WITH CONTINUED TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. THREAT SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY COOLS/STABILIZES -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA. ..GOSS.. 05/19/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z |