May 19, 2013 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 19 06:05:32 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130519 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20130519 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MODERATE 42,622 3,751,610 Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Norman, OK...Broken Arrow, OK...Joplin, MO...
SLIGHT 283,609 40,218,922 Chicago, IL...Dallas, TX...Ft. Worth, TX...Milwaukee, WI...Kansas City, MO...
   SPC AC 190600
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SERN KS/W CENTRAL
   AND SWRN MO SWWD INTO CENTRAL OK...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER
   GREAT LAKES REGION SSWWD INTO N CENTRAL TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LINGER IN PLACE ACROSS THE SD/NEB
   VICINITY...WHILE A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK AROUND THE SRN FRINGE OF THE
   LOW EJECTS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE
   PERIOD.  WHILE A SECOND LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE PAC
   NW COAST LATE...THE CENTRAL U.S. STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE SYSTEM OF
   INTEREST WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE SD VICINITY
   BENEATH THE UPPER LOW...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SHIFT
   EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS.  AS THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK SHIFTS INTO
   THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS
   FORECAST TO OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SWRN OK VICINITY...NEAR THE
   INTERSECTION OF THE FRONT AND A DEVELOPING DRYLINE.  THE COLD FRONT
   AND DRYLINE SHOULD SERVE AS PRIMARY FOCI FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
   OF WIDESPREAD/SEVERE STORMS.
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
   WHILE DETAILS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
   WIDESPREAD/INTERVENING CONVECTION...ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
   WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST MONDAY/DAY 2 ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
   
   WEAKENING/DIMINISHING CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
   ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...BUT AS STORMS/CLOUDINESS WANE THROUGH THE
   MORNING IN MOST AREAS...EXPECT THE ONSET OF HEATING TO DRIVE STRONG
   AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION.  BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE
   PRE-FRONTAL/PRE-DRYLINE WARM SECTOR SHOULD FEATURE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG
   MIXED-LAYER CAPE.  AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT -- AIDED BY THE APPROACHING
   JET STREAK AND FOCUSED ALONG LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES --
   INCREASES...EXPECT DEVELOPMENT/RAPID GROWTH OF INITIAL CONVECTION
   DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.  AS SHEAR INCREASES IN CONJUNCTION
   WITH INTENSIFYING FLOW ALOFT...STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY ACQUIRE
   ROTATION -- PARTICULARLY WHERE CAPE/SHEAR JUXTAPOSITION APPEARS MOST
   FAVORABLE ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA.  HERE...THREAT FOR VERY LARGE
   HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL EXIST.  THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL
   INCREASE INTO THE EVENING...AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO LINEAR CLUSTERS IN
   SOME AREAS.  EVEN SO...ROTATING/SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD LINGER
   LOCALLY WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS -- WITH CONTINUED TORNADO AND
   LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.  THREAT SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH
   OVERNIGHT...AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY COOLS/STABILIZES -- PARTICULARLY
   ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/19/2013
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z