SPC AC 061734

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1234 PM CDT THU JUN 06 2013

   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EASTERN
   CAROLINAS...SOUTHEASTERN VA TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF
   SOUTHWESTERN...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NM...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHWEST KS AND PARTS OF THE
   OK/TX PANHANDLES...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WHILE A
   DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS E OF THE ROCKIES WITH THE AXIS
   CENTERED ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY.  SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED 
   WITHIN W/NWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC NERN PACIFIC AND OVER
   WA/ORE AT THIS TIME WILL REACH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SRN
   ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...RESPECTIVELY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. 
   MEANWHILE...T.S ANDREA /PER NHC FORECAST AND GUIDANCE/ IS EXPECTED
   TO ACCELERATE NEWD FRIDAY AND SHOULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL DURING THE
   LATTER HALF OF DAY2 AS IT MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE DELMARVA
   COAST.

   ...ERN CAROLINAS...SERN VA TO SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA...
   GIVEN THE LATEST NHC GUIDANCE FOR T.S. ANDREA WITH THE EXPECTED NEWD
   ACCELERATION OF THIS SYSTEM...THE SLIGHT RISK INCLUDING A TORNADO
   THREAT AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOME FOR THIS
   FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS GUIDANCE KEEPS THE ERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
   STRONGER CORRIDOR OF 40-55 KT SLY 850 MB WINDS SPREADING NEWD FROM
   ERN SC/NC TO SERN VA/SERN DELMARVA.  A RICH ENVIRONMENT /PW
   EXCEEDING 2 INCHES/...AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY AND 0-1 SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT
   AND POTENTIAL FOR  DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
   FORECAST PERIOD.  THESE THREATS MAY LINGER OVER SERN VA AND SRN
   DELMARVA INTO THE EARLY EVENING...PRIOR TO ANDREA MOVING OFF THE MID
   ATLANTIC COAST AROUND OR AFTER 08/00Z.

   ...PARTS OF SWRN-SRN AND CENTRAL NM...
   MODELS SUGGEST GREATER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BY FRIDAY MORNING
   INTO PARTS OF SWRN-CENTRAL NM WITH MEAN MIXING RATIOS AROUND 10
   G/KG. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A DEEPLY MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. 
   THE GREATER MOISTURE IN THIS REGION SUGGESTS CU SHOULD FORM
   RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. THE SRN EXTENT OF THE WA/ORE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ENHANCING STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  DESPITE
   WEAK LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...30 KT WNWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL
   RESULT IN SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION.  STRONG
   DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN A DEEPLY MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER WITH A FORECAST FOR INVERTED V THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES.

   ...SWRN KS AND PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...
   MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH ACTIVITY ADVANCING INTO SWRN KS TO THE
   OK/TX PANHANDLES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE AIR MASS SHOULD HAVE
   BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THIS EVOLUTION WILL BE AIDED BY THE
   WA/ORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHING THIS REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTING STORM ORGANIZATION.  THUS...A SLIGHT
   RISK HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH THIS OUTLOOK.

   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EWD THROUGH THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A FAR
   NERN PACIFIC CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SRN BRITISH
   COLUMBIA TO SRN ALBERTA FRIDAY AND THEN AMPLIFY INTO THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS OF ERN MT/WRN ND FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS MAY
   DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/ERN MT INTO WRN ND AND/OR MOVE SEWD OUT
   OF SRN SASKATCHEWAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH THE APPROACH OF
   THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AS
   WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN...MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE
   OVERALL COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. RELATIVELY STRAIGHT
   HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST SPLITTING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
   GUSTY WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE.

   ..PETERS.. 06/06/2013

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