Jul 5, 2013 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jul 5 17:27:50 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130705 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20130705 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 169,173 5,240,985 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Fargo, ND...Rapid City, SD...
   SPC AC 051725

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1225 PM CDT FRI JUL 05 2013

   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE BLACK HILLS EWD INTO
   MN AND FAR WRN WI...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF MT AND INTO
   THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY...ROTATING AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF
   THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER HIGH. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
   WILL EXTEND FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO CNTRL NEB AND WRN KS AND SWD
   INTO THE ERN NM. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

   TO THE E...MODEST UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NERN STATES AROUND
   THE NRN SIDE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC HIGH...WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIR
   MASS IN PLACE POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
   DURING THE DAY.

   ...NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME
   FROM ND INTO NRN MN EARLY. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
   FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR HAIL. SHEAR PROFILES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
   THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE EARLY ACTIVITY
   TO REINVIGORATE ACROSS MN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

   OTHERWISE...OTHER DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
   INTO CNTRL SD...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO SRN MN AND IA DURING THE
   EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH LARGE
   HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. CAPPING WILL INCREASE DURING
   THE EVENING...AND SHOULD GENERALLY RESULT IN A DECREASE IN COVERAGE
   AND INTENSITY.

   ...OH/PA/NY...
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
   HEATING...BUT LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE POOR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM AIR MASS WITH LITTLE
   FOCUS...BUT A FEW CELLS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL
   GIVEN MARGINAL 20-30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW SEMI-ORGANIZED
   STORMS.

   ..JEWELL.. 07/05/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z