Jul 11, 2013 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 11 05:48:48 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130711 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20130711 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 110545

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1245 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   NRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WRN TWO THIRDS
   OF THE U.S. WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
   EJECTING ENEWD THROUGH THE SRN CANADIAN PROVINCES. COLD FRONT WILL
   CONTINUE EWD WITH SRN END LIKELY TO STALL OVER THE NRN PLAINS. BY
   FRIDAY EVENING THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NERN ND OR NWRN MN SWWD
   INTO NRN SD AND NERN WY. LEE TROUGH WILL EXIST FARTHER SOUTH FROM 
   NERN CO THROUGH NEB AND ERN SD.

   ...CNTRL THROUGH NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY AREAS...

   ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY OVER NRN ND...AND MAY
   EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO NRN MN. SOUTH OF ONGOING STORMS...MODERATE
   INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG MOIST AXIS FROM THE ERN
   DAKOTAS...ERN NEB INTO A PORTION OF MN. WARM AIR ALOFT ATTENDING THE
   EWD EXPANDING EML PLUME SHOULD CAP THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER A PORTION
   OF THE MOIST WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
   DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CO...WY AND SRN MT AND
   SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE ENEWD INTO THE DEEPLY MIXED AIR OVER THE HIGH
   PLAINS WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS. THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG MUCH OF COLD FRONT MIGHT REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED
   /ESPECIALLY WITHIN AXIS OF GREATER MOISTURE WITH EWD EXTENT TOWARD
   UPPER MS VALLEY/ GIVEN STRONG CAP AND POTENTIAL FOR MULTI-LAYER
   CLOUDS. INITIATION WILL BE MORE PROBABLE ALONG PORTION OF LEE TROUGH
   FROM NERN CO INTO WRN NEB WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR WEST OF MOIST
   AXIS. INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A FEW
   DOWNBURSTS. STORMS /MOST LIKELY ELEVATED/ MAY PERSIST DURING THE
   EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING
   LLJ AS WELL AS FARTHER WEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. 

   A SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE THREAT WOULD EXIST IF SFC BASED STORMS CAN
   DEVELOP FARTHER EAST WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS
   AND WRN MN WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. GIVEN POTENTIAL
   CAPPING ISSUES...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME FOR MORE
   THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES. HOWEVER...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

   ..DIAL.. 07/11/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z