SPC AC 110545
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2013
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
NRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WRN TWO THIRDS
OF THE U.S. WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EJECTING ENEWD THROUGH THE SRN CANADIAN PROVINCES. COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE EWD WITH SRN END LIKELY TO STALL OVER THE NRN PLAINS. BY
FRIDAY EVENING THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NERN ND OR NWRN MN SWWD
INTO NRN SD AND NERN WY. LEE TROUGH WILL EXIST FARTHER SOUTH FROM
NERN CO THROUGH NEB AND ERN SD.
...CNTRL THROUGH NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY AREAS...
ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY OVER NRN ND...AND MAY
EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO NRN MN. SOUTH OF ONGOING STORMS...MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG MOIST AXIS FROM THE ERN
DAKOTAS...ERN NEB INTO A PORTION OF MN. WARM AIR ALOFT ATTENDING THE
EWD EXPANDING EML PLUME SHOULD CAP THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER A PORTION
OF THE MOIST WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CO...WY AND SRN MT AND
SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE ENEWD INTO THE DEEPLY MIXED AIR OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG MUCH OF COLD FRONT MIGHT REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED
/ESPECIALLY WITHIN AXIS OF GREATER MOISTURE WITH EWD EXTENT TOWARD
UPPER MS VALLEY/ GIVEN STRONG CAP AND POTENTIAL FOR MULTI-LAYER
CLOUDS. INITIATION WILL BE MORE PROBABLE ALONG PORTION OF LEE TROUGH
FROM NERN CO INTO WRN NEB WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR WEST OF MOIST
AXIS. INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A FEW
DOWNBURSTS. STORMS /MOST LIKELY ELEVATED/ MAY PERSIST DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING
LLJ AS WELL AS FARTHER WEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
A SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE THREAT WOULD EXIST IF SFC BASED STORMS CAN
DEVELOP FARTHER EAST WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS
AND WRN MN WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. GIVEN POTENTIAL
CAPPING ISSUES...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME FOR MORE
THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES. HOWEVER...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..DIAL.. 07/11/2013
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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