SPC AC 310626

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0126 AM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH...EVOLVING ACROSS EASTERN
   CANADA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE U.S. LATER TODAY
   THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST WITH LITTLE
   EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  AS AN UPSTREAM
   CLOSED LOW SHIFTS INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...MOSTLY
   IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
   PIVOTING AROUND ITS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY...SUBTROPICAL
   RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO BECOME
   SUPPRESSED.  WHILE MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANTICYCLONIC
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS...HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
   TO GRADUALLY FALL. 

   A NUMBER OF SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN
   STRONGER FLOW AROUND THE CREST OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
   ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS...AND WITHIN THE CYCLONIC REGIME ACROSS
   THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST.  THESE
   FEATURES...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL IMPULSES WITHIN A PLUME OF MOISTURE
   WRAPPING AROUND THE WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER...ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS...ARE EXPECTED
   TO CONTRIBUTE TO AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
   THURSDAY NIGHT.  IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL
   BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO
   THE LOWER CENTRAL PLAINS...WHERE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE CONDITIONAL AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.

   ...NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO LOWER CENTRAL PLAINS...
   ABOVE A LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOISTEN ON
   SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...THE EASTWARD ADVECTION OF VERY WARM
   MIXED LAYER AIR FROM THE PLATEAU REGION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED
   INHIBITION ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  VARIABILITY EXISTS
   AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE MORE STRONGLY
   CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...BUT STRONGER WARM ADVECTION ON ITS
   EDGE MAY PROVIDE ONE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.  STORMS
   MAY ALSO INITIATE WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING NEAR THE FRONT RANGE AND
   BLACK HILLS...AS WELL AS ALONG A WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF
   CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

   BENEATH WEAK TO MODERATE WEST NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW...
   SIZABLE CAPE AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
   WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. 
   SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET STRENGTHENING TO 30-40 KTS DURING THE EVENING
   HOURS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE UPSCALE GROWTH OF ONE OR
   MORE ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF GENERATING SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.

   ..KERR.. 07/31/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z