SPC AC 030533
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT SAT AUG 03 2013
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND FOUR
CORNERS STATES WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY SEWD ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES...WITH A WEAK LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. BACKED SURFACE FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM KS INTO THE BLACK HILLS
AREA...WHERE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY.
...CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
EARLY...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH AN EARLY BOUT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN SMALL/MARGINAL HAIL...BUT ANY THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS IT SHIFTS EWD INTO MN AWAY FROM THE GREATER INSTABILITY.
LATER IN THE DAY...HEATING WILL ERODE CAPPING FROM SERN MT INTO WRN
NEB AND NERN CO. LONG STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS WILL CONDITIONALLY
FAVOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN
AREAS BENEATH THE STRONGER UPPER FLOW. WITH LITTLE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT OR CONVERGENCE...COVERAGE OF SEVERE SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
ISOLATED. HOWEVER...A FEW HAIL STONES COULD BE VERY LARGE.
OTHER EARLY STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN KS
IN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION WITH A 20-25 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET.
DURING THE DAY....HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER OK WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN/SERN KS AND NERN OK...OR SW OF ANY
OUTFLOW. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK...BUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG
INSTABILITY. VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR ANY BOUNDARIES COULD RESULT
IN ROTATION IN SOME OF THE CELLS...BUT THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE
MARGINAL HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURSTS.
..JEWELL.. 08/03/2013
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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