SPC AC 060600

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013

   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF SRN KS AND
   NRN OK...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY
   AND SRN GREAT LAKES...

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NE MANITOBA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY
   OR RETROGRADE VERY SLOWLY SWWD...MAINTAINING STRONGER BELT OF WNWLY
   WINDS ALOFT FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY.
   UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE
   COUNTRY...WHILE A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST DRIFTS INLAND. A
   VORT MAX NOW OVER CNTRL BAJA IS EMBEDDED IN WEAK FLOW...AND SHOULD
   LIFT SLOWLY NEWD...REACHING THE CNTRL ROCKIES LATER WEDNESDAY. AT
   THE SFC A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
   TRAILING PORTIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND OK WHERE
   IT WILL LIKELY STALL. A LEE TROUGH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS WRN TX. 
    
   ...SERN CO...NERN NM...SRN KS THROUGH NRN OK...

   ENELY NEAR SFC WINDS WILL EVOLVE IN POST FRONTAL ZONE OVER KS AND
   THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...MAINTAINING UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS
   ACROSS SRN KS INTO NRN OK BENEATH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EXIST IN POST FRONTAL
   REGION...WITH STRONGEST HEATING LIKELY OCCUR IN THE DRIER AIR JUST
   SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER OK. ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE ALONG THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE WITH 2000-2500 J/KG
   MLCAPE POSSIBLE. A CAP SHOULD INHIBIT SFC BASED DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
   LATER IN THE DAY WHEN STORMS MAY INITIATE IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED
   FRONT AS WELL AS IN UPSLOPE REGIME OVER SERN CO AND NERN NM. THIS
   REGION WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BUT WITH ELY
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS JUST NORTH OF SFC FRONT BENEATH 30-35 KT FLOW AT 500
   MB SUPPORTING 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
   ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING
   ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF FRONT.

   ...MID MS THROUGH OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...

   WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY
   BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER PORTIONS OF OH VALLEY AND GREAT
   LAKES PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY THIS PERIOD IS
   EXTENT OF AND PLACEMENT OF ONGOING STORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
   PERIOD. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS INCLUDING AN MCS OR TWO
   MAY BE IN PROGRESS FROM PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MS
   VALLEY OR POSSIBLY WRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY. STORMS WILL LIKELY
   REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY IN WARM SECTOR ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING STORMS AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND SPREAD
   SEWD. WHILE WINDS IN THE SFC-700 MB LAYER ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK
   OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION...SUFFICIENT FLOW AOA 600 MB MAY EXIST TO
   SUPPORT AT LEAST ORGANIZED MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING
   WIND AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.

   ..DIAL.. 08/06/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z