SPC AC 110600

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT SUN AUG 11 2013

   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   GRADUAL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY OVER THE GREAT
   LAKES REGION AND ADJACENT OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST STATES...WHILE AN
   UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH
   RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A
   NORTHWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW ALONG THE WA/BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTS.

   ...MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES...
   GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
   AMPLIFYING/SOUTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
   ONTARIO/NORTHWEST QUEBEC...WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG CYCLONIC UPPER
   FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE
   WEST-SOUTHWEST WILL OCCUR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A SLOW
   SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT...WITH A CORRIDOR OF WEAK TO
   MODERATE INSTABILITY /AS MUCH AS 1000-1750 J PER KG MLCAPE/ AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF IL/INDIANA INTO
   OH/SOUTHERN LOWER MI. AIDED BY THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
   INCREASINGLY STRONG UPPER JET...TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE/INTENSIFY
   MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. MODESTLY
   STRONG/NEAR-UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE ASIDE
   FROM SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD
   EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY AND PERHAPS INTO
   OTHER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH A
   DIMINISHED CONVECTIVE INTENSITY BY MID/LATE EVENING.

   ...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO OZARKS/MID-SOUTH...
   CLUSTERS OF TSTMS/PERHAPS A WEAKENING MCS MAY BE ONGOING MONDAY
   MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER MO
   VALLEY/OZARKS. ON THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY...IT
   SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT MESOSCALE INFLUENCES MAY HELP FOCUS
   DEVELOPMENT/REINTENSIFICATION OF STORMS INTO A VERY
   MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCLUDING A
   CORRIDOR FROM EASTERN OK/OZARKS TO THE MID-SOUTH/MS VALLEY.
   DOWNBURSTS/SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITHIN
   THIS SCENARIO.

   ...NORTH/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   ALTHOUGH OVERALL FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MODEST
   UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEARBY ROCKIES UPPER
   RIDGE...ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN VICINITY
   OF A HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH WITH AID OF LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
   TRAJECTORIES. WEAK SHEAR/MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
   STRONGER TSTMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
   SOME SEVERE WIND AS STORMS DEVELOP/SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY
   AFTERNOON/EVENING.

   ...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
   OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND A RESIDUALLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
   AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR WIND.

   ..GUYER.. 08/11/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z