Sep 19, 2013 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Sep 19 06:03:53 UTC 2013 (20130919 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20130919 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130919 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20130919 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 52,002 16,599,764 Columbus, OH...Detroit, MI...Louisville, KY...Lexington, KY...Cincinnati, OH...
   SPC AC 190600

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   MIDWEST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN WILL EXIST
   OVER THE CONUS ON FRIDAY. THIS INCLUDES THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
   AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE ADJACENT GREAT LAKES
   REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT SPREADING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH
   OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST TO THE ARKLATEX/NORTH TX. MEANWHILE...AN
   ADDITIONAL UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH/SPREAD INLAND OVER THE COASTAL
   PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

   ...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...
   GENERALLY TIED TO THE ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH...A COLD
   FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
   THE GREAT LAKES REGION/MIDWEST. ONE COMPLICATING AND PROBABLE
   LIMITING FACTOR FOR DESTABILIZATION/ASSOCIATED SEVERE RISK WILL BE
   LIKELIHOOD/EXTENT OF EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION ALONG AND
   AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT. FURTHERMORE...EVEN WITH THE REGION
   UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
   ASCENT/SOMEWHAT STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR...THE BULK OF THE
   ASCENT/SHEAR WILL TEND TO LAG /TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST/ THE EFFECTIVE
   COLD FRONT. EVEN SO...A SUFFICIENT COLLOCATION OF WEAK TO PERHAPS
   LOCALLY MODERATE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND NEAR-FRONTAL
   ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER/POSSIBLY SEVERE
   TSTMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WHILE A PARTICULARLY
   ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED...A
   MARGINAL CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK APPEARS WARRANTED FOR MAINLY AN
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND RISK AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL /MOSTLY
   SUB-SEVERE/.

   ...MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY/ARKLATEX...
   IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SUFFICIENT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...ALBEIT
   MODEST...COULD OCCUR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEAST-MOVING FRONT TO
   ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...WELL SOUTH OF THE
   MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
   CONSIDERABLY WEAKER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUB-15 OR 20 KT MID-LEVEL
   WESTERLIES. THIS SUGGESTS ANY SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE
   QUITE MARGINAL AND EPISODIC AT MOST.

   ..GUYER.. 09/19/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z