Oct 30, 2013 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Oct 30 17:28:53 UTC 2013 (20131030 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20131030 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20131030 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20131030 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 336,149 41,877,243 Houston, TX...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...
   SPC AC 301726

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1226 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS RIVER
   VALLEY TO THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS...

   ...ARKLATEX/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS...
   THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DMGG WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
   TORNADOES...WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
   POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS. THE PRIMARY
   CONCERNS/UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF SVR POTENTIAL
   CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE POSSIBILITY OF EARLY CONVECTION AND
   THE RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR DURING THE DAY. 

   THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT WITHIN THE WARM
   SECTOR...COMBINED WITH AT LEAST WEAK MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND
   ISENTROPIC ASCENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD...SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
   SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. A SEWD MOVING MCS MAY ALSO BE
   ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX...WITH
   PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTIVE OF LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS.
   BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE
   FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH ACQUIRES A
   NEGATIVE TILT...WITH A BELT OF 60-70 KT 700 MB FLOW BECOMING
   POSITIONED FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY BY 18Z. THE
   STRONGLY SHEARED BUT WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE SUPPORTIVE
   FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH ANY SEMI-DISCRETE STRUCTURES THAT CAN
   EVOLVE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DMGG
   WINDS AND TORNADOES /PERHAPS ONE OR TWO STRONG/ POSSIBLE.
   HOWEVER...THE STORM MODE IS LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT COMPLEX/MESSY
   INITIALLY PRECEDING AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. 

   MORE SUBSTANTIAL/FOCUSED FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER
   TROUGH AND AN ACCELERATING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE
   ARKLATEX AND MID-MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE DETAILS
   ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR...A CONTINUOUS LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE
   APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND RAPIDLY SHIFT EWD ATTENDANT TO A
   RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW. WHILE THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
   DMGG WINDS...BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES COULD SUPPORT TORNADOES EMBEDDED
   WITHIN THE LINE...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SRH PRESENT. THE
   LINE SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING ACROSS THE
   APPALACHIANS/UPPER OH VALLEY...EVENTUALLY OUTRUNNING RICHER
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...BUT AT LEAST SOME WIND/TORNADO
   THREAT MAY CONTINUE GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-/MID-LEVEL WIND
   FIELDS.

   ..ROGERS.. 10/30/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z