SPC AC 100602

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1202 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013

   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED
   ACROSS THE PACIFIC...WHILE ALSO BECOMING INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
   DOWNSTREAM...ACROSS MUCH OF CANADA AND THE U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD. 
   AS AN INITIAL IMPULSE WITHIN LARGER SCALE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGHING
   SHIFTS TOWARD THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST
   COAST...UPPER RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO BUILD ALONG AN AXIS NORTH
   NORTHEAST OF A SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH CENTER THROUGH THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ADJACENT NORTHERN ROCKIES.  AT THE SAME
   TIME...CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN EAST OF THE
   HIGH PLAINS INTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
   SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXPANDING/STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
   ...THE CENTER OF WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI
   VALLEY REGION.  THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS COLD INTRUSION MAY CURVE
   FROM NEAR NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY.  WHILE THIS
   LATTER FEATURE SHOULD ACT TO GENERALLY REINFORCE STABLE CONDITIONS
   WITH LOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE RISK FOR
   WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE MONDAY
   INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS AT LEAST A COUPLE OF AREAS.

   ...GREAT LAKES REGION...
   PRONOUNCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE
   RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE...THROUGH COLD ENOUGH
   LAYERS...TO SUPPORT FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING LIGHTNING.  SOME OF THIS COULD ORGANIZE INTO ELONGATING
   BANDS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN BY
   MIDDAY...COASTAL NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
   PERHAPS THE REMAINDER OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN
   DURING THE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS.

   ...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
   LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STILL APPEAR TO EXIST
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...MAINLY WHERE AN AXIS OF
   STRONGER PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE HEATING EMANATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS
   INTERSECTS THE AXIS OF A WEAK RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE...PROVIDING
   THE FOCUS FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.  MID/UPPER
   FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT PROBABLY WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE...BUT A
   ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTAL LIFT MAY BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH A TENDENCY TO BE
   UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT WHILE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD/SOUTHWESTWARD.

   ..KERR.. 11/10/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z