Jan 28, 2013 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 28 07:53:45 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130128 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20130128 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 280751
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0151 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013
   
   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
   STATES...MID SOUTH REGION...AND MID/SRN ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   CONTINUED EWD PROGRESSION OF A LARGE CENTRAL/ERN NOAM TROUGH IS
   FORECAST THIS PERIOD...THOUGH REINFORCEMENT OF THE TROUGH ON ITS WRN
   FRINGE SUGGESTS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD COVER MOST OF
   THE U.S. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY LOWER
   MI SWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION IS FORECAST TO MAKE STEADY
   EWD PROGRESS...MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE
   EVENING AND THEN VACATING THE ENTIRE ERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT.  PRIOR
   TO MOVING OFFSHORE...THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS
   CONVECTION...AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS.
   
   ...CENTRAL GULF COAST/MID SOUTH REGION EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD
   NEAR/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...FROM THE MIDWEST SWD TO THE
   MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER.  THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL MARCH STEADILY
   EWD ALONG WITH THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT...BUT VERY MODEST
   INSTABILITY -- PARTICULARLY FROM THE MID SOUTH/CAROLINAS NWD --
   SHOULD ACT TO HINDER OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL.  
   
   HAVING SAID THAT...VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST...WHICH WILL
   FAVOR LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS EVEN IN AREAS WITH LITTLE CAPE --
   AND PERHAPS NO LIGHTNING.  
   
   ATTM...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO EXIST FROM
   ERN KY/ERN TN SWD INTO MS/ERN LA/AL/THE FL PANHANDLE AND INTO GA AND
   THE CAROLINAS...WHERE AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO COULD ALSO OCCUR. 
   THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY W OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
   EARLY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BEFORE STORMS MOVE
   OFFSHORE.
   
   ..GOSS.. 01/28/2013
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z