SPC AC 160726
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0226 AM CDT SAT MAR 16 2013
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR ERN KY/TN INTO PARTS OF THE
   DEEP SOUTH...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A VIGOROUS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE MID MO
   VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES BY
   TUESDAY MORNING.  WHILE THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE MOVES FROM THE
   UPPER MIDWEST INTO ONTARIO...A WEAKER LOW WILL MOVE NEWD ALONG A
   FRONT INTO THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY.  SCTD TSTMS ARE
   FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG A SEWD
   ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY SWD INTO PARTS OF
   THE DEEP SOUTH.  STRENGTHENING MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL SEEMINGLY SUPPORT A RISK FOR
   SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY SWD INTO AL...WITH
   PERHAPS A LINGERING STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
   FROM THE NRN GULF COAST STATES EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...
   ONGOING SHOWERS/TSTMS INVOF THE FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
   WILL PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER KY AND
   PORTIONS OF ADJACENT STATES.  THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SHOULD ACT TO
   LIMIT THE WRN EXTENT OF MORE ROBUST TSTMS TO PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
   TN/ERN KY...WITH THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZING E OF THE FRONT.  THE
   QUALITY OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
   QUESTION...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE MODIFIED WARM
   SECTOR IN THE OH VALLEY.  MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY SHOWS SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE OH RIVER AND INTO THE
   LOWER 60S FARTHER S OVER N-CNTRL AL.  THIS WOULD SUPPORT AN
   INCREASINGLY PINCHED PLUME OF MARGINAL BUOYANCY ON THE ORDER OF
   SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG SBCAPE OVER PARTS OF KY WHERE STORM COVERAGE
   APPEARS GREATER --POTENTIALLY IN A BAND OF STORMS.  DESPITE
   DESTABILIZATION CONCERNS/LIMITATIONS...STRONG DEEP SHEAR PROFILES
   WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES AND A POTENTIAL WIND DAMAGE
   THREAT.  FARTHER S OVER SRN MIDDLE TN INTO PARTS OF MS/AL/GA...TSTM
   COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER...CORRESPONDINGLY DUE TO LESS LARGE SCALE
   UPPER SUPPORT.  HOWEVER...GREATER BUOYANCY WITH UPWARDS OF 750-1500
   J/KG MLCAPE PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAY YIELD A HIGHER MAGNITUDE OF
   SEVERE THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE FRONT
   MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
   
   DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DECREASING MOISTURE WITH E/NEWD EXTENT
   AND EFFECTS FROM DIURNAL STABILIZATION WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A
   GENERAL DECREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS THE PRIMARY UPPER
   FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS WELL TO THE N OVER THE OH VALLEY/GREAT
   LAKES AND H85 FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER.  DESPITE THESE LIMITING
   FACTORS...A LINGERING STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT MAY PERSIST WITH
   RESIDUAL TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEWD MOVING FRONT OVER MS/AL EWD
   INTO PARTS OF GA/SC.
   
   ..SMITH.. 03/16/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z