SPC AC 240730
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT WED APR 24 2013
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE/SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
   THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE TIED TO AN EASTWARD MOVING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AS IT OVERSPREADS THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OZARKS/ARKLATEX...IN CONCERT WITH WEAK SURFACE
   LOW DEVELOPMENT AND A MODESTLY SHARPENING FRONTAL ZONE.
   
   ...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO ARKLATEX...
   EARLY DAY TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...INCLUDING
   PORTIONS OF OK/NORTH TX TO THE OZARKS. ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
   THIS EARLY DAY ACTIVITY...WARM FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE FOCUSED
   ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
   ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STEADILY
   SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS TX/LOWER MS VALLEY. AIDED BY DPVA
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WARM/MOIST
   ADVECTION...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION
   SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG/NORTH OF THE WNW-ESE ORIENTED WARM FRONTAL
   ZONE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS ARE
   EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE ARKLATEX...WHERE WEAK TO MODERATE
   ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR
   STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
   AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE OVERALL SCENARIO APPEARS AT LEAST MARGINALLY
   SUPPORTIVE OF A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. 
   
   FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL/LOW PROBABILITY
   SURFACE BASED TSTM/SUPERCELL THREAT WILL EXIST NEAR THE ADVANCING
   SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX INTO
   CENTRAL TX.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/24/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z