Apr 27, 2013 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Apr 27 07:37:49 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130427 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20130427 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 270735
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0235 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2013
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN/AMPLIFY FROM THE
   ROCKIES EAST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WHILE A SLOW MOVING SOUTHEAST
   U.S. DISTURBANCE WEAKENS FURTHER. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
   ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN THIS
   REGION. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
   DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE
   UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST/MO RIVER
   VALLEY AREA. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
   NEAR/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THESE AREAS ON MONDAY
   AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY WIDE DISPARITY IN FRONTAL TIMING
   AND DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AMONGST THE NAM/GFS AND ENSEMBLES IS
   SUCH THAT IT APPEARS TOO EARLY TO INTRODUCE EVEN LOW SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES AT THIS FORECAST RANGE.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/27/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z