SPC AC 280735
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0235 AM CDT SUN APR 28 2013
   
   VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NCNTRL
   U.S. THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WEAKER SRN STREAM MID/UPPER LOW MEANDERS
   NEAR THE GULF COAST WITH WEAKER DISTURBANCES SPREADING DOWNSTREAM
   ACROSS FL. THE PROMINENT TROUGH EMERGING OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
   WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT WILL SPREAD EAST AND
   SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND NRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
   TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE MAKING SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESS OVER THE
   MID/LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WRN PORTION OF THE
   COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWD ACROSS HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO AND WRN KS
   AND LIKELY REACH THE NRN TX PNHDL BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
   
   ...NRN KS/SERN NEB ACROSS IA TO SRN WI...
   LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL ADVANCE
   INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST DURING TUESDAY WITH THE ECMWF BEING
   SLOWEST TO DEVELOP ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALONG/NEAR THE FRONT
   UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
   FRONT...UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN HIGH REGARDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   RETURN AND SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
   SECTOR/CONVEYOR BELT. FURTHERMORE...THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH APPEARS
   TO MAINTAIN A POSITIVE TILT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONGER HEIGHT
   FALLS REMAINING WEST AND GENERALLY WEAKER LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   COINCIDENT WITH GREATER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. MODEL GUIDANCE
   APPEARS TO SUGGEST THAT INHIBITION WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT TO IMMEDIATELY ON OR EVEN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
   POST-FRONTAL STORMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATER IN THE PERIOD AS LLJ
   AIDS MASS TRANSPORT AND LIFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. THIS EVOLUTION
   WOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASING SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH TIME FROM STORMS
   UNDERCUT BY POST-FRONTAL SURFACE-BASED STABLE AIR. IF GREATER
   CONFIDENCE IS GAINED IN SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT...TIMING...AND INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR...SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY BE INCREASED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
   
   ...FL...
   LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH
   ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INCREASE IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO CONTRIBUTE
   TO NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS FL. BAND OF MODEST MID LEVEL WLY FLOW ON
   THE ORDER OF 30-40KT MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A FEW
   LONGER-LIVED/ORGANIZED STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/WIND.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/28/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z