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| Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 170722 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF MT WED AFTERNOON TO WED NIGHT... ...SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASAL PORTION OF THE AMPLIFIED WRN CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD EJECT NEWD FROM THE NWRN GREAT BASIN TO THE NRN ROCKIES BY EARLY THU. THIS WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER ERN MT WITH A COLD FRONT ACCELERATING EWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WED NIGHT. FARTHER S...THE DRYLINE WILL PROBABLY MIX OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WITH WEAK HEIGHT RISES MAINLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...MT... PRECEDING DAYS OF LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD PREDOMINATELY 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS MOST OF THE LEE OF THE NRN ROCKIES AT PEAK HEATING WED. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE...AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME RATHER UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE LIKELY REACHING 1500-2500 J/KG. MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DCVA DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD WRN MT BY AFTERNOON AND INTO CNTRL MT BY EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MERIDIONAL MID/UPPER-LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR N/NELY STORM MOTIONS WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. CONVECTION MAY GROW UPSCALE DURING THE EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS WITH AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER PRODUCING A MIX OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL. ...GREAT PLAINS... ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE BULK OF THE PLAINS...OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS NEBULOUS FOR WARRANTING SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES ATTM. WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISING AND MODERATE 700 MB WINDS BECOMING PREDOMINATELY SWLY...IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE PLAINS MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD MIX E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN /ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES/. HOWEVER...THE NAM REMAINS FARTHER W THAN THE ECMWF/UKMET/GFS/CMC AND SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WILL FIRE WED AFTERNOON. MOST OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGEST CONVECTION MAY REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED ALONG THE DRYLINE OWING TO A STRENGTHENING EML/CAPPING INVERSION. WHERE ISOLATED DRYLINE TSTMS ARE ABLE TO FORM...SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND. SOMEWHAT HIGHER TSTM PROBABILITIES ARE APPARENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CAP WHERE NOCTURNAL ELEVATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND. ..GRAMS.. 06/17/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z |