SPC AC 030726

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0226 AM CDT SAT AUG 03 2013

   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER WRN SD...ERN WY...AND MUCH
   OF CNTRL AND WRN NEB...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH
   NWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NRN ROCKIES SEWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC.
   HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE DEPRESSED WITH LESS RIDGING
   OVER THE PLAINS AS MULTIPLE LOW AMPLITUDE FEATURES RIPPLE SEWD
   WITHIN THE BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK LEE TROUGH WILL AGAIN
   EXTEND FROM ERN MT SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH A WEAK LOW
   CENTERED OVER WRN KS BY AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING IN THIS REGION
   WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND...WITH ANOTHER NOCTURNAL
   MCS POSSIBLE ACROSS KS...NEB...AND MO.

   ...NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SEWD INTO MO...
   MORNING CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING DUE TO A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET FROM
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWD INTO MO AND AR. LAPSE RATES SHOULD GENERALLY
   BE POOR WITH THIS LEADING ACTIVITY...WITH LITTLE SEVERE THREAT.

   BY MID AFTERNOON...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FROM THE BLACK HILLS
   INTO WRN NEB...AND THESE WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS GIVEN AMPLE DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY. VERY LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS FARTHER S INTO CO
   AND WRN KS WILL PROBABLY BE MORE OUTFLOW DOMINATED DUE TO WEAKER
   FLOW REGIME. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT CELLS WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE
   INTO AN MCS WITH A WIND THREAT...AND WILL CONTINUE SEWD OVERNIGHT
   ACROSS NEB AND KS AND INTO NWRN MO BY TUE MORNING. THIS SEEMS A
   REASONABLE SOLUTION GIVEN THE CURRENT PATTERN.

   ..JEWELL.. 08/03/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z