SPC AC 100729

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   GRADUAL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
   AND ADJACENT OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY...WHILE AN UPPER
   RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE
   PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A NORTHWARD-MIGRATING UPPER LOW.

   ...MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES...
   AS HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR TIED TO THE AMPLIFYING/SOUTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING
   UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO/NORTHWEST QUEBEC...INCREASINGLY
   STRONG CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.
   MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WILL OCCUR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
   OF A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT...WITH A CORRIDOR OF AT
   LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF IL/INDIANA INTO OH/SOUTHERN LOWER MI. AIDED BY THE
   RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INCREASINGLY STRONG UPPER JET...TSTMS
   SHOULD INCREASE/INTENSIFY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODESTLY
   STRONG/NEAR-UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
   MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE ASIDE FROM SOME
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY AND PERHAPS INTO OTHER PARTS OF THE
   NORTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH A DIMINISHED INTENSITY
   BY MID-EVENING.

   ...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO OZARKS/MID-SOUTH...
   CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CLUSTERS OF TSTMS/PERHAPS A WEAKENING MCS
   MAY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
   PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS. ON THE FRINGES OF THIS EARLY DAY
   ACTIVITY...MESOSCALE INFLUENCES MAY HELP FOCUS
   DEVELOPMENT/REINTENSIFICATION OF STORMS INTO A VERY
   MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS MONDAY AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY
   INCLUDING A CORRIDOR FROM EASTERN OK/OZARKS TO THE MID-SOUTH/MS
   VALLEY. SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITHIN THIS
   SCENARIO.

   ...NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   ALTHOUGH OVERALL FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MODEST UNDER THE
   INFLUENCE OF THE NEARBY ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE...ISOLATED/WIDELY
   SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF A HIGH PLAINS LEE
   TROUGH/UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES. WEAK SHEAR/MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY
   ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER TSTMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
   SOME SEVERE WIND MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

   ...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
   AS COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS...WEAKER OVERALL FORCING IS EXPECTED
   ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH OROGRAPHIC LIFT/RESIDUALLY
   MOIST AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE
   STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR WIND.

   ..GUYER.. 08/10/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z