Sep 12, 2013 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Sep 12 07:23:50 UTC 2013 (20130912 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20130912 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130912 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20130912 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 120721

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0221 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013

   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD ON
   SATURDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN
   GULF COAST STATES. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR ALONG THE
   FRONT FROM SRN GA NEWD INTO ERN NC BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
   MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING. IN THE WESTERN STATES...THE
   MODELS ALSO MOVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
   THE CNTRL ROCKIES SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
   THIS SYSTEM IN THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND CNTRL TO NRN HIGH PLAINS
   SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NONE OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   ACROSS THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO EITHER
   WEAK INSTABILITY OR INSUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR.

   ..BROYLES.. 09/12/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z