Sep 26, 2013 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Sep 26 07:20:52 UTC 2013 (20130926 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20130926 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130926 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20130926 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 260717

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0217 AM CDT THU SEP 26 2013

   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE NRN/CNTRL
   PLAINS NEWD INTO NRN ONTARIO BY EARLY SUN. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
   WILL PUSH EWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
   TRAILING PORTION SHIFTING SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. A STOUT
   MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR THE WRN GULF COAST
   WITH A RIDGE EMANATING NEWD TO NEW ENGLAND.

   ...CNTRL CONUS...
   WITH A SPATIALLY DECREASING BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL S/SWLYS
   GENERALLY LAGGING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND LOW-LEVEL SWLYS
   DIMINISHING GREATLY WITH SWRN EXTENT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   APPEARS LOW. WHERE SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY SHOULD EXIST FOR DEEP
   CONVECTION FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU TO THE SRN PLAINS...POOR MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES...WEAKENING SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR AND UNDERCUTTING OF
   THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MITIGATE ORGANIZED SEVERE. FARTHER
   N...BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW AND QUITE MEAGER WITHIN A NARROW
   CORRIDOR ALONG THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL BE
   IMPRESSIVE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...THEY SHOULD BE NEARLY MERIDIONAL
   SUGGESTING THAT RAIN BANDS MAY LARGELY REMAIN POST-FRONTAL.

   ..GRAMS.. 09/26/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z