Oct 10, 2013 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Oct 10 07:00:54 UTC 2013 (20131010 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20131010 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20131010 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20131010 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 100658

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 AM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER
   GREAT LAKES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BEHIND
   A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOWER MI INTO SRN OK SAT AFTERNOON. S OF
   THIS FRONT...LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST...BENEATH
   RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT WITH WLY FLOW. THE SRN PLAINS PORTION OF
   THIS FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
   ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY LATE ACROSS THE WRN
   CONUS...WITH WEAK CONVECTION POSSIBLE.

   ...NWRN TX INTO SERN OK AND NWRN AR...
   MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS SRN OK/N TX
   INTO WRN TX DURING DAY...THEN RETURNING NWWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS
   WRN TX OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING OVER ERN
   OK INTO WRN AR EARLY SAT...AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   LATER IN THE DAY...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER WRN AND NWRN
   TX...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR
   THE BOUNDARY. MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MARGINALLY
   FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. A CLUSTER
   OF STORMS COULD BE MAINTAINED INTO THE EVENING OVER WRN TX AS A SELY
   LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AS THE WRN TROUGH AMPLIFIES.

   ..JEWELL.. 10/10/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z