SPC AC 150730

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013

   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL
   EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND INTO THE NERN STATES LATER
   THURSDAY NIGHT. FARTHER UPSTREAM...THE BROAD SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL
   AMPLIFY ACROSS ROCKIES AND PLAINS REGION. AT THE SFC AN OCCLUDED
   FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
   CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE WRN GULF. THE TRAILING PORTIONS OF
   THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OVER THE WRN GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE
   AMPLIFYING TROUGH WHILE REMAINING PORTION ADVANCES TOWARD THE
   ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

   ...SERN U.S THROUGH MID ATLANTIC REGION...

   PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS FROM NEAR 70 ALONG THE
   GULF COAST TO NEAR 60 OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL RESIDE IN
   THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. POOR LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF CLOUDS
   WILL LIKELY SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION WITH MUCAPE AOB 500
   J/KG LIKELY. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SHIFT NEWD ALONG THE
   FRONT AND IN POST FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE SERN U.S. THROUGH THE CNTRL
   APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. DESPITE RELATIVELY STRONG BUT
   LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL SHEAR...THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS.

   ..DIAL.. 10/15/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z