Oct 28, 2013 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook | |||||||||
Updated: Mon Oct 28 07:32:53 UTC 2013 ( | ) | |||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
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Probabilistic Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 280730 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT MON OCT 28 2013 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY... ...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER/MIDDLE MO VALLEY ... A CONSIDERABLE UPPER TROUGH/ASSOCIATED STRONG POLAR JET ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRANSITION FROM THE ROCKIES TO MUCH OF THE PLAINS/MO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY...A COLD FRONT WILL GENERALLY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MO VALLEY...WHILE ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY OVERTAKING A DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. FACTORS SUCH AS CONTINUED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VARIABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL EXTENSIVENESS OF EARLY-DAY CONVECTION COMPLICATES THE DETAILS AT THE DAY 3 JUNCTURE. REGARDLESS...THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD...AND A SEASONALLY MOIST AIRMASS IMPLY AT SOME SEVERE RISK WILL EXIST ACROSS A BROAD REGIONAL EXTENT WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS VARY...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE EAST OF A COLD FRONT/DRY LINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...INCLUDING A CORRIDOR FROM NORTH TX AND PORTIONS OF OK INTO KS/MO. THE UNCERTAIN TIMING/COVERAGE OF SUCH CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER COMPLICATES THE DETAILS. BUT A VERY MOIST AIRMASS...WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AND RELATIVELY STRONG SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT MULTI-FACETED STORM MODES INCLUDING RISKS FOR HAIL/WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. FARTHER NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IS UNCERTAIN NEAR/EAST OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND EASTWARD-ACCELERATING COLD FRONT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTENSIVE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. REGARDLESS...SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE IN TERMS OF EVEN MODEST DESTABILIZATION...A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK WOULD LIKELY BE WARRANTED GIVEN AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR. ..GUYER.. 10/28/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z |