Nov 10, 2013 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 10 07:41:51 UTC 2013 (20131110 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20131110 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20131110 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20131110 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 100738

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0138 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013

   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS A SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PROGRESSES INLAND...ACROSS AND TO
   THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...MODELS INDICATE THAT RIDGING OVER
   INTERIOR WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL FLATTEN AND FLOW WILL BECOME
   MORE ZONAL DURING THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF
   LARGE-SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGHING APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN
   U.S...COINCIDENT WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A
   SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL COLD INTRUSION ACROSS THE GULF COAST INTO THE
   GULF OF MEXICO...AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD INTO THE WESTERN
   ATLANTIC.  BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS AT
   THE SURFACE MAY REACH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. 
   THESE DEVELOPMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REINFORCE GENERALLY STABLE
   CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S...WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
   REMAINING LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

   ...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
   THE OPERATIONAL NAM...IN PARTICULAR...APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
   MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE INTERIOR FLORIDA
   PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS.  HOWEVER...LOCALLY
   ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AT LEAST NEAR SOUTHERN COASTAL
   AREAS...MAY SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED DAYTIME AND EVENING
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AIDED BY LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD
   VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF THE DIGGING SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
   APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

   ..KERR.. 11/10/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z