Jan 1, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 1 05:46:42 UTC 2014 (20140101 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140101 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140101 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140101 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140101 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140101 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 010543

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1143 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
   THE FIRST DAY OF THE NEW YEAR WILL SEE A VERY LIMITED CONVECTIVE
   POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY TSTM POTENTIAL. THIS
   WILL BE AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OCCURS OVER THE
   PLAINS/MO RIVER VALLEY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
   THE GULF OF MEXICO TO FL PENINSULA/EVENTUALLY ADJACENT ATLANTIC AS
   WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN NORTHWARD.
   HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC CHARACTERISTICS WILL GENERALLY NOT BE
   CONDUCIVE FOR TSTMS INLAND/IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT WATERS...ESPECIALLY
   GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF A RESIDUAL
   MID-LEVEL INVERSION ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.

   ..GUYER.. 01/01/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z