Jan 2, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 2 00:55:34 UTC 2014 (20140102 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140102 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140102 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140102 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140102 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140102 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 020051

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0651 PM CST WED JAN 01 2014

   VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   CONSOLIDATION OF AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...AND
   ASSOCIATED LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION...LIKELY WILL
   PROCEED TONIGHT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  AS THIS OCCURS...A
   WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE FROM THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS RED RIVER VALLEY AREA INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE
   VALLEYS...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT REINFORCING INTRUSION OF COLD
   AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  AT THE SAME TIME...WEAK SURFACE WAVE
   DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG A REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE EAST OF THE
   SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. PRECIPITATION PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STALLED LEAD FRONTAL ZONE...ACROSS
   PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA/NORTHERN FLORIDA/GEORGIA AND THE
   CAROLINAS...AS WELL AS AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM FRONT.  HOWEVER...IT
   STILL APPEARS THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OVER INLAND AREAS AND
   COASTAL WATERS WILL NOT BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

   ..KERR.. 01/02/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z